Geologically Yours, Ukraine

Both Sides Are Lying

(Originally appeared in The Progressive Populist. Now with a fancy, schmancy new website)

As Billy Preston sang, “Nothing from nothing leaves nothing.”

Welcome to the trillion-dollar world of mineral deposits in Ukraine.

In my other life, I write for an association of professional petroleum geologists. I don’t know anything about geology, much less petroleum geology — and, in fact, I have hurt myself pumping my own gas — but I have been following the events in Ukraine, politically and geologically, for a few months now.

Oy. Double oy.

Politically, the ballyhooed minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine, in which Ukraine contributes 50 percent of its future proceeds — future, that’s key — to a joint fund from state-owned mineral resources, is a fantasy at best, a lie at worst.

The fund will be managed by Kyiv and Washington equally, if U.S. law permits it (and I’m sure that will stop Trump if it doesn’t), and is designed to promote, according to the agreement, “the safety, security, and prosperity of Ukraine.” For his part, Trump believes America is entitled to those discoveries of valuable elements and, not to put too fine a point on this, sees it as a way to recoup the financial assistance we gave Ukraine since Russia invaded it four years ago.

After World War II, we set up the Marshall Plan to rebuild nations devastated by war; now, we put a lien on their resources.

It’s the new America.

Geologically, the question is, what minerals does Ukraine actually have, what are they worth, and how expensive will it be to get them? This is where Trump’s hoped-for dual Nobel Prizes in economics and peace are in jeopardy. According to the Ukrainian Geological Survey, the country has six percent of proven reserves of the world’s graphite, which is used to make batteries for electric vehicles, and seven percent of the world’s supplies of titanium, which is used in everything from planes to power stations. It also has beryllium and uranium, which are both crucial for nuclear weapons and reactors, as well as copper, lead, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. The country also has large deposits of lithium, though, like so many of the reserves above, untapped, as well as other rare earth metals that are used to produce weapons, wind turbines, and electronics.

It’s a veritable Disney World of geologic wonder, but here’s the problem . . . actually there’s more than one.

All those estimates are based on Soviet-era surveys that were carried out between the 1960s and the 1980s. Nobody really knows, though, least of all Trump and the Ukrainians, what’s underneath the country, and both have reasons to lie about it. Even if the projections are correct, Ukraine may not be such a treasure trove. For instance, lithium is hundreds of times more abundant — and already being developed — in South America. While Ukraine has seven percent of the world’s titanium, America has ten percent. We also get titanium from Canada, which we’ll continue to get unless we keep annoying them. Cobalt, another element needed for aerospace and energy applications, comes mostly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ukraine, which ranks 69^th on the list of worldwide producers of that mineral, isn’t even a player.

More seriously, it’s not like those resources are all in an underground box, clearly marked, with road signs leading to them. To extract them will take billons of dollars — and that’s without Russians dropping bombs on explorationists’ heads. And speaking of, many of the minerals are in areas of the country seized by Russia, which means it will have to give those regions back to Ukraine for Ukraine to benefit from. According to Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s economy minister, the value of resources in occupied territories today is about $350 billion. I’m sure Putin will gladly return that land to the Ukrainians.

According to the World Economic Forum, Ukraine has about 20,000 mineral deposits covering 116 types, but only about 15 percent of the sites were being actively exploited before Russia invaded.

Before.

“Critical minerals” is a political term, defined as any mineral, element, substance, or material designated as vital to the welfare of the country. That changes, as you can imagine, with each administration. At present, those determinations are made by the U.S. secretary of the interior, who is currently Doug Burgum, ex-North Dakota governor, billionaire, Trump lackey, and former GOP presidential candidate.

Rare earth minerals, by contrast, are a set of 17 metallic elements, which includes 15 lanthanides on the periodic table, plus scandium and yttrium, which are all necessary components of more than 200 products, including high-tech consumer products, such as cellular telephones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, and flat-screen monitors and televisions, and for defense applications including electronic displays, guidance systems, lasers, and radar and sonar systems. Countries with the largest rare earth mineral reserves, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, are China, Brazil, India, Australia, Russia, Vietnam, the United States, Greenland, Tanzania, South Africa, Canada, and Thailand.

Not on the list: Ukraine.

And here’s our very knowledgeable president: “We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earths and other things.”

There you have it: We’re going to be “giving them their” rare earths and, you know, other things.

According to the IEEE Spectrum, a magazine edited by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, there are no deposits of rare earth elements in Ukraine known to be minable in an economically viable way.

None.

Jack Lifton, executive chairman of the Critical Minerals Institute, was quoted in the magazine as saying, “If you want critical minerals, Ukraine ain’t the place to look for them. It’s a fantasy. There’s no point to any of this. There’s some other agenda going on here. I can’t believe that anybody in Washington actually believes that it makes sense to get rare earths in Ukraine.”

As Mark Twain said, “A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top.”